12 July, 2011

Political Chicken in the Midst of Serious Debt Ceiling Dangers

 *******UPDATE******07/21/2011


" By using the budget's details as a means of warfare in this game of politics in order to justify being opposed to raising the debt ceiling could prove disastrous"

 



Grover Norquist, President of Americans for Tax Reform
            The 'Grand Bargain' that was so promptly denied by House Republicans earlier this week is back in the negotiations. The bi-partisan group of senators, also known as the 'Gang of 6' confirm that this may be the best option in tackling both the debt ceiling issue and the deficit simultaneously. The plan proposed by the group and originally by President Obama would cut deficits by $3.75 trillion over the next 10 years, and would include cuts in entitlement programs and accrue revenue by $1.2 trillion dollars.
              The plan was well received by President Obama, who declared that he would pen his name onto the short term deal offered by the Gang of 6. House Republicans still seem adamant to throw out any bill that involves any sort of tax hikes, even if it's just for the wealthy investors through the capital gains tax.
               Grover Norquist, President of the organization Americans for Tax Reform, is the man behind the scenes in the GOP party, pressuring Republicans to deny any bill that involves raising taxes, even if that plan has huge deductions in spending. Grover Norquist's organization sent out an oath for House Republicans to sign, stating that they will not under any circumstances sign a bill that includes raising taxes on any group, wealthy or not. All but 3 House Republicans signed the bill, making the wiggle room for negotiations just that much more limited.
               Grover Norquists obsession with the wealthy's tax rates comes at the expense of average people. When Stephen Colbert on the Colbert Report posed a hypothetical question to Norquist that involved whether or not America should raise taxes if somehow terrorists kidnapped our grandmothers and wouldn't release them until Congress agreed to raise taxes on the top 2% of the country in fiscal terms, Norquist's response was quite cynical. Norquist replied "I think we console ourselves with the fact that we have pictures and memories". This seemingly defiant and unmoved man by what seems to be one of the most dire situations one could be involved in is emblematic of the almost zealot like manner in which conservative members of Congress fight for tax cuts for the wealthy.
              Grover Norquist even went on to claim that every time capital gains taxes have been raised the economy has declined. Capital gains taxes are the taxes imposed on investors when they share and trade stocks. The current rate is 15%, which is low in comparison to the past 3 decades. Politifact deemed Norquist's claim as false, as the capital gains tax has been raised and lowered over the years, and shows no correlation with the overall well being of the economy. Politifact stated that under President Reagan the capital gains tax was raised and the economy improved, meanwhile under President Clinton the capital gains tax was lowered and the economy proved sluggish. At other times the capital gains tax was raised and the economy declined and vice versa. Overall Politifact saw nothing to link the capital gains tax with the general economy.
              Senator Harkin (D-Iowa) commented on the recent opposition to repealing tax cuts for the wealthy, relating the movement to a "cult fringe" that is hindering any progress in Congress. Senator Harkin, one of the Democrats in the gang of 6 went on to say Americans want shared sacrifice from both parties, and without it voters will choose wisely this coming election. President Obama made a similar statement saying "If each side takes a maximalist position, if each side wants 100 percent of what its ideological predispositions are, then we can't get anything done."
              What must be recognized in this debate is the fact that the budget and the debt ceiling limit are not intertwined. There is no need to alter or manage the budget for the debt ceiling to be raised. They are two separate issues and while one may contribute to the problems in the other, there is no requirement for the former to be adjusted in order for the latter to be raised. The debt ceiling limit deadline is used by Republicans and Democrats alike to push forward a balanced budget plan, which is a good thing. Getting our fiscal house in order should be a top priority for lawmakers in Congress. But by using the budget details as a means of warfare in this game of politics to justify being opposed to raising the debt ceiling could prove disastrous.
              As for now anti tax zealots like Norquist and Tea Party activists in the House seem to be dominating the debate, as Democrats and President Obama seem to capitulate to their demands. A mutual sacrifice must be made and the Democrats seem more than eager to sacrifice cuts in huge entitlements like Medicare and Social Security, two of the biggest programs held dear to both Democratic lawmakers and their constituents alike if that means they can avert defaulting on the nation's debt. House Republicans don't want to budge and go back on the oath they signed to Norquist and his organization, which appear to be one of the most influential and powerful lobbying groups in America that you've never heard of. As this debate becomes more and more toxic, we can only hope for an agreement that will gain support from both parties and ultimately solve our country's huge fiscal problems.
 
 


******UPDATE****** 07/16/2011







“The reason default is no better an idea today than when Newt Gingrich tried it in 1995 is that it destroys your brand’’ - Senator Mitch McConnell
 
              The stakes are only getting higher as the deadline approaches for the debt ceiling to be raised. GOP leaders have begun to recognize the folly in their plan to politicize the debt ceiling talks. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell in a statement earlier today warned that by resisting the deal President Obama has offered and not coming to some compromise will leave the Republican party's image tarnished for the 2012 elections. Sen. Mitch McConnell said earlier today that by declining any compromise and shutting down the government would “... Give the president an opportunity to blame Republicans for a bad economy.’’. Sen. Mitch McConnell went on to compare the government shutdown in 1995 led by Newt Gingrich with the contemporary issue of raising the debt ceiling and said “The reason default is no better an idea today than when Newt Gingrich tried it in 1995 is that it destroys your brand.’’
             President Obama went on his own campaign, by appealing to the public and doing exactly what Sen. Mitch McConnell feared; showing the American public that he is not to blame for the lack of compromise. His willingness to come to an agreement that can make both parties satisfied is best exemplified in his statement earlier today.  "We have to ask everyone to play their part because we are all part of the same country". President Obama believes that by mixing a combination of tax cuts and spending cuts he can satisfy both parties and come to a mutual sacrifice. President Obama finished with "We are all in this together."
             President Obama has even offered a smaller deal to Republicans, keeping in mind that being too ambitious can lead to the downfall of a proposed bill. President Obama's communication director, Dan Pfeiffer said earlier today that Washington aides, Vice President Joe Biden and President Obama have explored "various options" with congressional leaders from both parties. His offer comes at a critical moment, when Republican leadership seems more than willing to default on America's debt to prove an ideological point. This seems too risky of a bet for the Republicans to play, especially when America's financial future and it's people's livelihood are at stake.
             While President Obama and Republican leaders have been debating a smaller, less ambitious plan, top Democrats and Republicans are in the process of devising a plan that emulates the 'Grand Bargain' originally proposed. Even House Speaker John Boehner agrees that a large plan is in order, saying to a group of Republicans that he wasn't made House Speaker to do small things. Senate Budget Committee Chairman Kent Conrad, who is one of a select few of Senators who are committed to a bi-partisan plan that would help put America's fiscal house in order, commented on the current deadlock in talks between President Obama and Republican leadership. "We cannot as a country fail to deal with the debt threat," said Sen. Conrad, “Every serious economic analysis tells us we’ve reached the danger zone. And just kicking the can down the road? That can’t be. We’re better than that. We’ve got to be better than that.”
             Despite all the talk of compromise and collective action, the Senate has been working on a plan that would give President Obama the executive authority to raise the debt ceiling limit without congress's approval. This comes at a time when the President has been harshly criticized for his ultra vires use of executive power, whether it be through the on-going conflict in Libya or his approval to extend the Patriot act. Both of these situations set a precedent, as the executive branch of government has incrementally increased it's power over congress since the signing of the War Powers act in 1973. This gives President Obama the advantage of showing that he had the power to act unilaterally, but gave Republicans the option of coming to a mutual compromise.
             Even though Obama has this seemingly unlimited authority to raise the debt ceiling, he seems more than willing to compromise with Republican leaders in the House. This is doing President Obama's campaign for 2012 well, as his attempts at appealing to independent voters by reaching out to strike a compromise has rendered him a favorable position in the poles in comparison to Republican leadership. In a Quinnipac University study, pollsters said 48 percent of voters said they will blame Republicans if the debt ceiling is not raised, as opposed to 34 percent who will blame Obama. 45 percent of Pollsters said they trust President Obama's intentions, compared to only 38 percent for Republicans. Overall, President Obama scored a 47 percent approval rating while 46 percent disapproved.

           If you put aside the numbers and the nuances, the debt ceiling talks have basically resulted in nothing more than pandering to a select audience for an ideological motive. President Obama's willingness to compromise has left Republican leaders on the ropes. Sen. Mitch McConnell said it best when he stated that the Republican brand would be destroyed by their lack of political hindsight to come to an agreement. Sometimes it's the smart idea to stand your ground in an effort to defend your morals and views, but when it comes at the expense of the American public, that's just uncalled for. This is a situation that should not be taken so lightly whether it be economically or politically. In the long run President Obama's open hand will remain relevant in the voter's mind, while the Republican's clenched fist will only bring back memories of a party who was  obsessed with portraying the image necessary to obtain the vote from their ideological hardliners. The 2012 election will not be based on those devoted to the parties, but by the independents in the middle who could very easily swing either way. This issue will surely remain in the minds of those who cast their vote in 2012, and not many will be able to forgive the Republicans if they can't come to a compromise that shows sacrifice from both parties. 






 UPDATE ON DEBT CEILING TALKS- 07/14/2011

" The only thing on our leader's minds is who will come out on top politically from this debt ceiling debate, and that comes at the expense of the American people's livelihoods"
House Majority Leader speaking at a U.S. Chamber of Commerce event
            Five days into talks over the debt ceiling issue and almost no results have been rendered. Only accusations and scapegoating for the obstruction of progress in negotiations are the main talking points in these conversations. Even within the Republican party there is confusion over how to engage the talks, with House Speaker John Boehner (R-VA) and House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-VA) conflicted over the rules of engagement. House Majority Leader Eric Cantor has been reported to have walked out of bi-partisan meetings with Vice President Biden, has shunned any compromise offered by President Obama, and is vehemently opposed to any tax increases, even if that means closing the loopholes that give corporations the ability to avoid paying taxes that they are already required to pay.
             Rep Cantor's opinion on the closing of tax loopholes for corporations is much different than most of his counterparts. He believes the revenue accrued from the removal of tax loopholes should not be used to reduce the deficit, but instead should be directed in a way that would lower taxes. Cantor on Fox News said "If he (President Obama) wants to plug that loophole, we got to see about offsetting tax cuts somewhere else... We are not for raising taxes, period". This hard line stance has left little room for negotiation as President Obama and other like minded politicians see the need for shared sacrifice if this deal is to go through smoothly.
             Cantor's no-compromise approach has been heavily criticized from both his own party and the left. Even though on the exterior it seems that there is an internal conflict between Republican leadership and House Majority Leader Cantor, Boehner begs to disagree. Boehner today in a press conference said him and Cantor are "in this fight together," Boehner then added "any suggestion that the role that Eric has played in this meeting has been anything less than helpful is just wrong”. The need for solidarity within the Republican party is key to obtaining their objectives during these negotiations. As talks heat up over the details of the deal, politically aligning themselves with each other is a smart move for both Boehner, Cantor, and the Republican party as a whole.
             Senate Majority leader Harry Reid (D-NV) issued harsh criticism towards Eric Cantor for his obstructionism in the talks over the debt ceiling. “With so much at stake, even Speaker Boehner and (Senate) Minority Leader (Mitch) McConnell (R-Ky.) seem to understand the seriousness of this situation” said Senator Reid while on the Senate floor. Senator Reid even went as far to suggest Rep. Cantor shouldn't even be involved in the talks, and even called him "childish". Rep Cantor brushed off Senator Reid's remarks by claiming "Leader Reid is frustrated, as we all are".
             In the midst of this fruitless exchange of political jargon, time is slowly running out. The deadline, August 2nd, is only 2 weeks away and by then some sort of agreement must be made to avoid defaulting on America's debt. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner seems to be running out of patience when he issued a statement saying "We have looked at all available options and we have no way to give Congress more time to solve this problem... We're running out of time". Federal Reserve chairmen Ben Bernanke echoed the same sentiment, warning about the consequences of an economic collapse that would reverberate through the global economy.
              What these politicians don't understand is the implications of America having to default for the first time in it's history. This would almost instantly send interest rates through the roof, scare off foreign and domestic investment, and send shock waves through Wall St. and the business community. The hardest hit of all would be the small businesses that would surely not survive the catastrophic impact of such an event. Jeffrey Immelt, C.E.O. of GE (General Electric), one of the largest multi-national corporations in the world has espoused his worries over the lack of certainty in the business community in regards to the debt ceiling, and the havoc that would be reeked on small businesses. "I just think we need certainty about the debt ceiling and we need it now. That really can only happen here. Let’s do it now". Jeffrey Immlet also claimed that the uncertainty to conjure up a deal over the debt ceiling is leading small businesses to freeze hiring over fear of the impending crisis. "Why would you invest into that [situation]?" said Jeffrey Immlet on CNN.
               Whether or not the two sides can come to an agreement remains to be seen, but for now it seems the two sides are looking for ammunition to add to their political campaigns. With only 2 weeks before the ominous deadline, the two sides at the table can't seem to come with anything to agree on, besides agreeing that the other side won't agree. Surely an agreement will come to fruition, but not before both sides can load up their arsenal with talking points and political fodder to direct at the other side. This is a moment for both parties to demonstrate who is willing to work with one another, and who is not. In the end a deal will be made. They have to, the consequences are too severe. The only question is who will come out on top politically from this debt ceiling debacle, and that's the only thing that seems to be on our leader's minds.


Signing out- John Thomas



07/12/2011


" This is another example of politicians and lawmakers trying to extract political gain at the expense of economic tragedy"








Senator Mitch McConnell
         The current partisan battle over the raising of the debt ceiling has come to a fever pitch, as President Barack Obama and Republican leaders scramble to come up with a compromise. The initial compromise of $4 trillion dollars in spending cuts mixed with $2.5 trillion dollars in revenue increases has been heavily analyzed by both sides as to the benefits or inadvertant consequences of such drastic cuts and tax hikes on an already bruised economy. Cuts to Medicare, Social Security and various other social programs are all on the table, while revenue increases by eliminating corporate tax loopholes and tax holidays for large businesses are in the talks. 
        The Republicans pledge to oppose any tax hikes has left little room for compromise, as almost all Republicans in the House of Representatives are opposed to the bill, despite the 3 to 1 ratio in spending cuts. The debate has led to bitter tensions between the two parties, whether it's the Democrats arguing that the spending cuts are too drastic, or Republicans fighting to not go back on their oath to not raise taxes.

        Whether or not the mixture of $3 dollars in spending cuts for every $1 dollar in tax hikes is actually a well devised plan that will help reduce the deficit while simultaneously helping the economy, the budget seems to be a moment for ideologues to capitalize on some political gain. Despite the warnings from the Treasury Department and Treasury Secretary Timothy Giethner on the implications of America having to default on their debt, Republicans seem to be standing firm on their commitment to not raise taxes whatsoever, even if there is huge cuts in spending as an incentive.             
        Republican presidential candidate Tim Pawlenty said on "Meet the Press" this Sunday that such claims about the devastation of America having to default on it's debt by the Treasury Department may not be as severe as the department makes it out to be. When Tim Pawlenty was asked by host David Gregory about whether or not he believed the claims made by the Treasury Department , Pawlenty answered "Well, there are some serious voices challenging that very premise. And the answer is nobody really knows, because we've not been at this point before."
        The incessant attacks on the legitimacy of claims by bi-partisan organizations that seek to warn about the dangers of such drastic and radical moves gives Republicans credibility in their 'my way or the highway' philosophy towards raising the debt ceiling. This game of chicken between President Barack Obama and Republican leaders is like a toxin to our civil discourse, as any sign of compromise or agreement is painted as capitulation and downright surrender. This is another example of politicians and lawmakers trying to extract political gain at the expense of economic tragedy. Both parties have to realize that by politicizing such a serious and consequential issue like America having to default on it's debt for the first time in it's history is only adding to the inability of well intentioned law makers and politicians to come up with a solution that everyone can agree on.
        In the coming days it will be interesting to see what agreement the two sides come to. Senator Mitch McConnell has hinted at a compromise that is in the works between Republican leaders and President Barack Obama on how to deal with this petty and dangerous game of political chicken and finally come to an agreement. Let's just hope that the politics of this issue dissipate so the leaders in Congress can have the room to breathe freely and come to a compromise that will ensure the financial stability of America, and the world.

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